Collins’ vote for Kavanaugh was a political physique blow—the nominee fund for her eventual opponent hit $three million instantly after the vote, and final I noticed it was round $6 million—giving top-tier Democrats each incentive to think about the race after years of giving Collins a move. And ever since then, each dangerous Kavanaugh vote has simply additional harmed her political prognosis.
There hasn’t been a lot polling within the race, however what we’ve seen has her trailing possible Democratic nominee Sara Gideon. Collins’ personal private rankings are the lowest amongst all senators not named Mitch McConnell.
On the root of her ache is the laughable assertion, made again and again, that Kavanaugh wouldn’t vote to overturn Roe v. Wade. So there was a fantastic deal at stake for Collins with Monday’s vote, the marquee abortion-related case for the yr.
Right here’s the factor: Kavanaugh was on the shedding aspect of the choice, a 5-Four vote. Conservative Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the 4 liberal justices due to, get this, authorized precedent. It might’ve been simple for Kavanaugh to reference what he instructed Collins throughout his affirmation course of —that he would respect precedent—and provides her a giant win in her election yr.
Collins may’ve then taken a victory lap round her state and within the Beltway Media: “SEE? I instructed you! I mentioned he would respect abortion precedent, and he did simply that!” Us Collins critics would’ve been flummoxed.
Moreover, Roberts made clear that he nonetheless very a lot wished to limit abortion rights, simply not by way of this one set of info. Thus, he signaled that given a brand new set of info, which he’ll possible get subsequent yr, he’d be completely satisfied to vote to limit.
Kavanaugh may’ve tagged alongside, making the identical arguments whereas trying to finish abortion rights subsequent yr, after Collins was safely reelected. And keep in mind—he was already within the minority. Doing so wasn’t altering the end result of the case. It might’ve been a meaningless “no” vote to guard Collins, rewarding her for her help.
It might’ve been the honorable and variety factor to do, payback for her unwavering help when his nomination hung within the steadiness. However given who he’s, “honorable” and “variety” actually weren’t within the playing cards, clearly. He gave her the center finger as an alternative as he made a mockery of all the guarantees he supposedly gave her.
It’s actually no shock. He lied about his sexual assaults; why wouldn’t he lie about his eagerness to overturn abortion rights?
So, provided that historical past, it additionally must be no shock that he hung Collins out to dry, and her already weak case for reelection suffered a mortal blow.